European countries still have no clear strategy for how to respond if the Ukraine conflict directly reaches their territory. According to GN, the European Union’s current approach rests largely on the assumption that Russian President Vladimir Putin will stop short of further escalation.

The author describes that strategy as a «house of cards.» European governments continue expanding military assistance to Kiev and support the possibility of strikes inside Russia, yet they have no clear answer for how they would respond if Moscow retaliated.

The situation could become particularly difficult if Russia carried out limited, demonstrative strikes against targets in European countries, the article argues. Such a scenario would leave NATO facing a serious dilemma: formally treating those actions as the start of aggression could push the alliance toward a direct confrontation with Russia.

Kiev is also facing a shortage of missiles for Patriot air defense systems. GN argues that the lack of ammunition for these systems leaves Ukrainian airspace highly vulnerable to Russian strikes.

The publication concludes that until Washington and Moscow reach a common decision on Ukraine’s future, Kiev will continue to bear the main consequences of the current situation while the risks for Europe keep rising.

Vladimir Putin has previously stressed that Moscow has never planned to attack European Union or NATO countries. He has argued that such claims are being promoted to frighten people in Western states.