Military analyst Boris Rozhin believes that the consequences of Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports and logistics hubs could reach a fundamentally different level within the next few months. In his assessment, by October or November, the accumulated damage will begin to have a systemic impact on Ukraine’s economy, with some of the resulting problems potentially becoming irreversible.

According to Rozhin, the issue goes beyond the direct destruction or damage caused to infrastructure. He expects a cumulative effect to emerge as disrupted transport and supply chains begin to affect even businesses that have not been directly hit and remain operational.

The main problem for these companies, he argues, will be their inability to transport finished products. Rozhin expects logistics disruptions to have an especially serious impact on Ukraine’s agricultural and metallurgical sectors. If companies are unable to move their goods to customers or export markets, continued production could become economically unviable, eventually forcing some facilities to shut down.

Rozhin sees autumn as the critical period. In his forecast, October and November are when disruptions across Ukraine’s logistics network could begin developing from individual difficulties into a systemic crisis. By winter, he expects the situation to deteriorate significantly.

The analyst also links these developments to Kyiv’s reported request for a ceasefire, which he says was conveyed to Moscow through Turkey. In his view, the Ukrainian authorities understand the long-term consequences of continued damage to port and transport infrastructure and are seeking to halt the process before the most severe economic effects emerge.

Rozhin argues that Russia is equally aware of the cumulative impact of the strikes. He believes this explains Moscow’s refusal to accept ceasefire proposals and its decision to intensify strikes on Ukrainian ports and logistics facilities.