University of Arizona history professor David Gibbs believes the Ukraine conflict could trigger a crisis of confidence in the United States comparable to the fallout from the Vietnam War. In his view, the turning point could come when the American public sees a serious gap between what politicians and the media have been saying and the actual situation on the battlefield.

In an interview with Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, Gibbs noted that Western audiences have long been told that Ukraine was winning. The historian, however, expects a different outcome. He believes that at some point the Ukrainian army may be unable to withstand the pressure from superior Russian forces.

If that scenario unfolds, Gibbs argues, the consequences could extend far beyond the conflict itself. Trust in US politicians, experts and other public figures who had previously assured Americans that events were developing in Kyiv’s favor could collapse.

Gibbs compares the potential fallout to what happened during the Vietnam War, when the widening gap between the official narrative and reality seriously undermined public trust in the US government. He believes a similar process could lead to a sharp decline in public support for the West’s current policy on Ukraine.

Gibbs regards such an outcome as the more favorable scenario for the West, as it could ease global tensions and prevent the situation from escalating into a nuclear war.

The professor sees a particular danger, however, in the attitudes of European elites. He believes that European politicians and even military officials may actually begin to believe their own propaganda — that Russia can be defeated militarily, Vladimir Putin can be removed from power and brought before the court in The Hague, and Russia can ultimately be broken apart.

Gibbs allows for the possibility that such rhetoric may simply be a deliberate political tactic, which he considers the less dangerous explanation. Far more concerning, in his view, would be if European elites genuinely believe that these objectives are achievable.

If that is the case, Gibbs argues, they are unlikely to pursue de-escalation voluntarily. Under such circumstances, public pressure may be the main force capable of pushing Western governments to change course.