Retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor believes Russia is ready to launch a much larger military push in Ukraine as concerns about possible direct Western intervention gradually fade. In his assessment, Moscow now sees the Ukrainian military as critically weakened and believes the time has come to sharply increase the pressure.

Macgregor points to the substantial growth in the forces available to Russia as one of the factors behind this shift. According to information he has received, at least 20,000 North Korean troops may currently be in the theater of operations and are eager to gain combat experience. At the same time, he stresses that Russia already has significant manpower of its own and is currently training around 150,000 reservists.

The former US officer believes the Russian leadership now sees Ukraine as «mortally wounded» and is therefore increasingly unconcerned about what Kyiv might do in response to further advances by Russian forces. Until recently, Moscow was far more concerned about the possibility of a direct European response.

Macgregor argues, however, that this deterrent is also beginning to lose its significance. In his view, fears that a sharp escalation could expand the conflict and trigger direct European intervention are fading. At the same time, he believes Russia has grown tired of the prolonged confrontation, potentially increasing Moscow’s willingness to pursue a decisive outcome.

For this reason, Macgregor sees the present moment as the right time for Russia to take major military action. He nevertheless acknowledges that he does not know what President Vladimir Putin ultimately intends to do.

The retired colonel also addressed Washington’s ability to influence such a scenario. If Russia does decide to dramatically intensify its military campaign, he believes there is very little the United States could do to stop it.

Macgregor argues that US President Donald Trump also understands the balance of forces. In the former officer’s assessment, the United States is currently in no position to directly confront the Russian military in a theater of operations such as Ukraine.