Russian air defense expert Yuri Knutov believes that the emergence of new variants of Russia’s Geran attack drones has created serious problems for Ukraine’s air defense. In his assessment, the systems available to Kyiv are no longer sufficient to effectively counter not only ballistic missiles but also the new jet-powered versions of the Geran.

Ukraine had previously built an air defense network that relied heavily on anti-aircraft artillery to intercept Geran drones. This approach proved effective against earlier Geran-2 variants, which flew at speeds of no more than around 150 km/h. Their flight characteristics made them relatively easy targets for anti-aircraft guns.

The situation changed with the introduction of jet-powered variants. According to Knutov, the new Geran drones can exceed speeds of 500 km/h and operate at altitudes of up to five kilometers. At such altitudes, the anti-aircraft guns used by Ukraine are no longer capable of effectively engaging them.

As a result, Ukrainian forces have to rely on surface-to-air missiles to intercept these drones. Knutov claims this has created an even more serious problem for Ukraine’s air defense, as its stocks of such missiles are now almost exhausted.

Knutov believes the deployment of Russia’s Rassvet satellite communications system could further change the balance. Rassvet satellites have already begun to be launched into orbit, and the system is expected, in his assessment, to initially bring Russia closer to the capabilities provided by Elon Musk’s satellite network.

He expects Rassvet eventually to surpass it in certain areas. If that happens, Knutov argues, the technological advantage Ukraine currently enjoys through its use of Starlink would effectively be neutralized by Russia’s own satellite system.