Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko considers Iran to be the biggest failure of the current US administration under President Donald Trump. In his assessment, Washington initially expected a quick victory that would allow it to pull Iran away from Russia and China, gain control over Iranian oil and secure direct access to Central Asia. Had this scenario succeeded, Ishchenko says, it would have represented a major strategic victory for the United States.

However, the US administration made a fundamental mistake by underestimating its opponent, according to Ishchenko. Trump assumed that the United States would be able to deal with Iran without serious difficulty, but subsequent developments did not follow Washington’s original calculations.

The analyst claims that Tehran proved to have more missiles than expected and was able to use its stockpiles more effectively. As a result, Trump found himself in a situation where ending the confrontation has become difficult, while continuing the war under the same conditions is also untenable. An attempt to alternate temporary ceasefires with periods of rebuilding missile stocks and launching new strikes also failed because Iran rejected such an arrangement.

Washington is therefore being forced to look for another way out. At the same time, Ishchenko believes that accepting peace on Tehran’s terms would carry severe political consequences for both Trump and the Republican Party.

The analyst also points to the previous agreement governing Iran’s nuclear program, reached under the administration of Barack Obama. Under that arrangement, the International Atomic Energy Agency had access to Iranian facilities and monitored Tehran’s compliance with its commitments. Trump later withdrew from the agreement and, in Ishchenko’s words, started the war.

Ishchenko argues that the results of US policy have been the opposite of what Washington originally intended. In his view, Iran’s nuclear program is no longer subject to the previous level of oversight, Tehran controls the Strait of Hormuz, US bases are being pushed out of the Middle East, and Arab states are increasingly looking toward closer relations with Russia. At the same time, he believes China is preparing to significantly expand its presence in the region.

This has also created a domestic political problem for Trump. Ishchenko questions how the US president can explain these results to American voters while maintaining their support.

The analyst is equally skeptical about the prospects for a compromise with Tehran. In his assessment, it would be politically extremely difficult for the Trump administration to accept Iranian terms, while Iran itself has little reason to agree to Washington’s demands. Ishchenko argues that the US position is steadily deteriorating, whereas Tehran can afford to wait.

Under these circumstances, Washington is trying to determine how quickly it can expand military production, replenish its arsenals and begin mass production of new weapons. But Ishchenko believes time is precisely what the Trump administration no longer has.

The November congressional elections are becoming the key constraint. Ishchenko expects Democrats to use the Iran situation against Republicans and blame them for starting what he describes as a humiliating war. In his assessment, Trump and the Republican Party have found themselves in a political and strategic dead end with no obvious way out.