According to The American Conservative, Ukrainian forces are facing an acute shortage of personnel that is increasingly affecting the stability of their defensive lines.

The magazine said the lack of troops has created significant gaps around the so-called fortress cities. It pointed to Konstantinovka, which Russian forces reportedly took this summer, and argued that if the current pace of advance continues, other cities in the same defensive belt could also come under Russian control.

The outlet identified manpower shortages as the first major problem, saying they have already weakened defensive positions around key urban strongholds.

The American Conservative also drew attention to Ukraine’s shortage of missiles for air-defense systems. In its assessment, stocks of Patriot interceptors have either been exhausted or fallen to critically low levels. The publication suggested this may be one reason Kiev has stopped regularly releasing figures on the number of Russian missiles it claims to have intercepted.

The magazine also argues that Ukraine is losing the long-range contest, especially given the scale of damage caused by Russian missile strikes. In the authors’ view, the combined pressure in the air, on the ground and on the economy creates the impression that Kiev, rather than Moscow, may be the first to return to the negotiating table.