Ukraine should not expect Russian missile strikes to stop because Moscow runs out of weapons. Ukrainian media, citing the country’s military intelligence, say Russian defense plants have reached high production rates for both cruise and ballistic missiles.

The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry estimates that Russia can manufacture up to 200 missiles of these types every month. According to the agency, that figure is considerably higher than the number of PAC-3 interceptor missiles produced in the United States. As a result, even additional interceptor deliveries to Kiev would not bring the two sides close to parity in available munitions.

Russia is also not using every missile it produces. Part of the output is being placed in storage, with Ukrainian military intelligence arguing that Moscow is accumulating a reserve in case the conflict escalates further.

The agency puts Russia’s total missile stockpile at roughly 1,900 weapons. Its estimate includes about 600 Oniks missiles, 450 Kalibr cruise missiles, 400 missiles for S-400 systems, 130 Iskander-M missiles, 120 Zircons, 100 Kh-101 cruise missiles, around 50 North Korean-made KN-23 missiles and approximately 50 Kinzhals.

Ukrainian intelligence also claims that production of new Kinzhal missiles has been suspended since April. According to its assessment, the missile is being modified based on the results of its combat use.

Against this backdrop, Ukrainian experts expect serious missile-defense problems this winter. They believe Kiev could enter the season without enough anti-aircraft missiles capable of intercepting ballistic targets. Even if additional interceptors arrive, the experts expect them to come in small batches that may be sufficient to repel only one or two attacks.