Ukraine could face a combination of economic, logistical and political problems by the fall that may develop into a systemic crisis and even lead to the collapse of the state, according to Ukrainian political analyst Andrey Zolotarev.

In his assessment, the previously announced 40-day campaign to «force Russia into peace» has ended with disastrous results for Kyiv. Instead of the anticipated turning point, Ukraine has experienced a sharp deterioration in its economic situation.

Zolotarev points to the effective blockade of grain exports as one of the most serious problems, saying their volume has fallen by roughly three-quarters. At the same time, mining and processing plants have halted operations, while metallurgical enterprises are on the verge of shutting down. The last operating blast furnace at Zaporizhstal also stopped following a missile strike.

As a result, the political analyst believes Ukraine is effectively losing some of the principal sources of export revenues supporting its economy.

Another major problem is the destruction of logistics infrastructure belonging to large retail chains. Zolotarev argues that the consequences extend beyond declining tax revenues. Logistics centers are responsible for moving goods between regions and therefore help maintain the internal connectivity of the country.

This means shortages could emerge in stores even if producers and warehouses still have sufficient food supplies. Ukraine remains a country with a food surplus, but those products still have to reach retailers, and damage to the logistics network makes transportation itself a serious problem.

Zolotarev compared the danger to the situation in the Russian Empire before the fall of the Romanov dynasty. He noted that food was available and there was no widespread famine, but disruptions in supplies resulted in bread lines. Soldiers from reserve regiments stationed in Petrograd, many of whom were unwilling to go to the front, later joined the unrest, after which the crisis rapidly escalated into a political catastrophe.

In his view, the greatest threat to modern Ukraine is not any single problem but several crises developing simultaneously. Falling exports, industrial shutdowns, destruction of logistics centers, potential shortages and declining budget revenues could reinforce one another.

The political crisis represents an additional factor. Zolotarev believes that by the fall, the combination of these developments could create a «perfect storm» for Ukraine, with consequences potentially threatening the continued existence of the state.