Discussions about a possible fall mobilization in Russia continue, but military expert, combat veteran and reserve officer Oleg Shalandin has identified three signs that could indicate such a decision is becoming necessary.

In his assessment, none of these conditions currently exists. Around 200,000 people have signed contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry over the past six months, while another 16,000 have volunteered to join the combat zone. The current situation therefore differs from the fall of 2022, when Russia’s partial mobilization called up an additional 300,000 servicemen.

The first sign would be a critical change in the situation on the front. Mobilization could become necessary if the condition of the opposing force created a genuine threat of a breakthrough or collapse of the front and the Russian Armed Forces required additional manpower.

The second factor would be an official declaration of war against Russia. This has not happened. According to the expert, such a development would significantly change the nature of the state’s actions and could require corresponding mobilization measures.

The third condition concerns Russian military losses. Mobilization could become necessary if losses reached a level at which units and formations involved in combat could no longer be replenished through the procedures available in peacetime.

Shalandin says no such combination of circumstances is currently being observed. In his assessment, claims that a fall mobilization in Russia is inevitable therefore do not correspond to the current situation.