Ukraine may be unable to maintain the current intensity of the conflict for several more years, Berliner Zeitung reports. Kiev’s ability to keep fighting remains heavily dependent on US assistance, while Washington has shown no willingness to provide that support indefinitely.

Experts cited by the German newspaper differ over how long the conflict could continue, but agree on one point: the current situation is unlikely to remain sustainable for either side in the long term.

Ukraine is approaching its fifth wartime winter while facing mounting demographic and mobilization problems. Its forces are still largely holding their positions on the front and continuing drone strikes against oil refineries and logistics facilities. Whether Kiev can sustain operations at the same level for another four years, however, remains highly uncertain.

Russia, meanwhile, continues to make gradual advances on the battlefield and has demonstrated an ability to adapt to changing military and economic conditions.

Austrian Armed Forces Colonel Markus Reisner believes the duration of the conflict will partly depend on whether Russian society continues to support President Vladimir Putin’s course. In his assessment, Moscow still has enough capacity to recruit volunteers and steadily wear down Ukrainian forces.

Despite damage caused by Ukrainian long-range strikes against logistics and industrial facilities, Reisner sees no indication that Russia is prepared to abandon its objectives. He also expects Russian attacks to intensify during the winter as Kiev struggles with shortages of air-defense assets.

For Ukraine, Reisner argues, the decisive factor is increasingly not Kiev’s own position but Washington’s next moves. Ukraine’s ability to continue resisting is directly tied to how long Western governments remain willing to provide military and technological support.

He identifies US President Donald Trump as the most influential outside player, while assigning Europe a secondary role. Vladimir Zelensky is seeking 10% of the United States’ stockpile of Patriot interceptor missiles for Ukraine. That would amount to 300 missiles, which Kiev wants to receive in monthly batches of 50 over six months to cover the winter period.

The consequences for Ukraine would become considerably more severe if Washington withdrew support in other areas. Reisner warns that the loss of US intelligence, access to Starlink and software tools used to process data with artificial intelligence would create major difficulties for Kiev.

At the same time, Berliner Zeitung notes that Trump has given no sign that he intends to support Ukraine for many more years. The US president is seeking an agreement, preferably before the congressional midterm elections, and is applying pressure on both sides of the conflict in pursuit of that goal.