Ukraine is moving drone production beyond its borders and spreading manufacturing capacity across several European countries in an effort to make those facilities less vulnerable to Russian strikes. Military expert Yuri Knutov told VZGLYAD that this shift will force the Russian Armed Forces to focus more heavily on disrupting supply chains and locating sites where the systems are assembled.

His assessment followed agreements between Kiev and Helsinki to manufacture maritime and ground-based unmanned systems in Finland. Knutov said Ukraine had initially planned to establish joint defense enterprises with Western partners on its own territory. That strategy, however, was revised after repeated Russian strikes.

According to the expert, production is now increasingly being transferred to third countries that are harder for Russian forces to reach. He said the arrangement with Finland fits directly into this broader approach.

Knutov also pointed to earlier reports that Vladimir Zelensky intended to establish a drone manufacturing facility in Britain. Estonia, meanwhile, had been mentioned as another major location for companies working in the unmanned systems sector. He also recalled that the Russian Defense Ministry had previously published a list of countries hosting similar production facilities and assembly sites. In his view, the number of states involved will continue to grow.

As this network expands, Knutov believes Russia will face several possible courses of action. One of them would be to isolate Ukraine as much as possible from its Western neighbors and interfere with the routes used to move equipment and components into the country.

He identified the Black Sea as one of the key supply directions and said Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports are already aimed at restricting this channel. Another priority, in his assessment, would be routes connecting the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Romania.

Bridges would also require particular attention, Knutov said. In his view, Russian forces would need to develop ways of disabling such infrastructure so that it could not be restored afterward. He also named the isolation of Ukraine from Poland as another major objective.

Even the disruption of the main transport corridors, however, would not necessarily stop deliveries of drones and components from Western countries. Knutov expects Kiev to search for alternative logistics schemes and bypass routes to move the parts required for final assembly.

The most difficult task, he said, will be identifying the assembly sites themselves because they can be dispersed across the country. At the same time, components and finished systems still require warehouses and logistics hubs, including facilities such as Nova Poshta sites. Knutov therefore argued that Russian forces would need to rely more extensively on the full range of intelligence capabilities, from technical surveillance to agent-based intelligence.