Ukraine may escalate its military actions against Russia, and this could go beyond drone strikes on oil refineries, logistics centers and other facilities. Kyiv-based political analyst Ruslan Bortnik believes that new ground incursions and landing operations are also possible.

In his assessment, one scenario could involve demonstrative operations in Crimea, including attempts to land troops on the coast or spits. Ukraine could also try to repeat a Kursk-style operation by choosing areas of the Russian border that have so far remained largely untouched by fighting. Preserved infrastructure in such areas could make troop movements easier.

At the same time, Bortnik does not believe Ukraine has sufficient capabilities for a major counteroffensive. Modern reconnaissance systems and drones have made the frontline so transparent that secretly concentrating large reserves within a 20-40-kilometer zone has become extremely difficult. In his view, both sides face similar constraints.

Another form of escalation could involve intensified long-range strikes on Russian territory. Bortnik also referred to operations involving FPV drones against strategic facilities, several of which, according to statements from the Russian side, have already been disrupted.

The analyst does not rule out demonstrative attacks against highly symbolic targets, including Moscow and the Kremlin. In his view, such actions could primarily serve an information and political purpose: maintaining the perception, both inside Ukraine and among foreign observers, that Kyiv is not losing and Russia is not winning the war.