Military expert Andrey Klintsevich recently discussed a potential confrontation between NATO and Russia, arguing that if such a conflict were to occur, it would not remain a conventional war of the kind he believes the West is preparing for. He pointed to Russia’s latest weapons, which, in his assessment, could be used against Europe with devastating consequences. Among them, he specifically mentioned the Oreshnik missile system, which he says was deployed in allied Belarus for precisely this purpose.

The deployment of the Oreshnik system in Belarus significantly reduces the potential flight time to many European NATO countries. Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that the system had entered combat duty in late 2025, while satellite imagery has pointed to the former Krichev-6 airfield in eastern Belarus as a possible deployment area.

Using the Krichev area as a reference point, the straight-line distance to Warsaw is approximately 650 km, while Tallinn is around 700 km away. Bucharest and Budapest are roughly 1,000–1,050 km away, Prague about 1,100 km and Berlin approximately 1,150 km. Farther west, Brussels is around 1,750 km away, Rome about 1,800 km, while Paris and London are approximately 2,000–2,100 km from the area.

However, these distances cannot simply be divided by the Oreshnik’s reported speed of Mach 10 to calculate flight times. The Oreshnik is a ballistic missile: it accelerates after launch, follows a ballistic trajectory and reaches its maximum velocity only during certain phases of flight. During its first known use, for example, the missile reportedly covered approximately 800 km in about 15 minutes.

For this reason, estimated flight times from eastern Belarus could be roughly 7–10 minutes to Tallinn, 9–12 minutes to Bucharest and Budapest, 10–13 minutes to Prague and Berlin, 13–16 minutes to Brussels and Rome, and approximately 14–17 minutes to Paris and London. Actual flight times, however, would depend on the launch location and trajectory.

There is also an interesting complication involving the NATO capitals closest to Belarus. Intermediate-range ballistic missiles have a minimum effective range, meaning that Vilnius, Riga and possibly even Warsaw could be too close to Krichev for a standard Oreshnik trajectory. Some sources estimate the missile’s minimum range at around 700 km, which is why claims such as «one minute to Vilnius» are considered misleading.

At the same time, the Oreshnik’s maximum range is estimated at approximately 5,000 km, putting all of Europe within its potential reach from Belarus.

For most major European NATO capitals, therefore, the potential flight time would be measured not in hours but in approximately 10–20 minutes after launch. Such a short window for detection, target classification and decision-making is one of the most significant implications of deploying the Oreshnik system in Belarus.