Ukraine could lose the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration before the end of this year. Ukrainian military analyst Konstantin Mashovets estimates the probability of such a scenario at roughly 50%.

According to Mashovets, the Russian military has concentrated a large force in this sector, comparable in size to the grouping deployed at the beginning of the special military operation. Its advance is directed toward the last major urban agglomeration in Donbas still controlled by Ukraine.

Mashovets believes that the relatively slow pace of the Russian advance should not be misleading. Even gains of 800 meters to one kilometer every few days gradually expand Russia’s ability to establish fire control over the surrounding territory.

As Russian forces move closer, their ability to strike across the agglomeration increases. According to the analyst, they can already exert fire influence over virtually the entire Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area using a wide range of weapons.

Given the current battlefield situation and the size of the Russian force concentrated in this direction, Mashovets believes there is a significant chance that Ukraine could lose Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by the end of the year.