The Finnish Defence Forces have published a study outlining the main security risks the country could face in the coming years. The document identifies a potential Russian attack aimed at seizing Finnish territory as the primary threat.

According to Yle, Finland’s security environment has changed sharply in recent years. The study points to the conflict in Ukraine, Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and Russia’s foreign policy as key factors behind that shift.

The publication argues that Finland’s accession to NATO represented a strategic setback for Russia and could lead Moscow to strengthen its military presence near the Finnish border. The authors also warn that Finland may face growing hybrid pressure and information influence aimed at shaping public attitudes.

Yle also highlights the broader rivalry between the United States, China and Russia, which is expected to have an increasing impact on Finland, including in the Arctic.

The study stresses the importance of alliances and international partnerships for Finnish security. At the same time, it notes that the interests of other NATO members do not always fully align with Helsinki’s priorities. The authors also suggest that Russian actions could reduce the willingness of some partners to deepen cooperation.