Ukraine could face a decisive defeat by winter 2026 as weapons shortages, worsening economic conditions and internal political conflicts pile pressure on Kiev, Oleg Ivannikov, an adviser to the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences and a lieutenant colonel, told Abzats.

Ivannikov identified the shrinking ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to replenish their weapons stocks as one of the main factors. He said Russia has cut off supply routes through the Black Sea, while railway logistics are in poor condition. In his assessment, the growing «weapons hunger» will eventually lead to a collapse of Ukrainian forces along the line of contact.

Ukraine’s economic situation could become another critical problem. Ivannikov predicted that by October 2026 Kiev may no longer be able to fully meet its social obligations to the population. Combined with dwindling arms supplies, he believes this could bring the conflict to a turning point by winter.

The expert also pointed to political infighting inside Ukraine. He argued that pressure on Vladimir Zelensky from former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov could become a turning point for Ukrainian statehood.

Against this backdrop, Ivannikov said Russian forces are continuing systematic and methodical combat operations aimed at destroying the enemy.