Russian and Ukrainian strikes on ports and warehouses could escalate into attacks on grain elevators, potentially triggering a global food crisis, according to military volunteer Alexey Zhivov.
In his view, further escalation in the Black Sea and mutual strikes on civilian vessels carrying grain could lead to wheat shortages on the global market and higher prices. If the two sides also begin destroying each other’s grain elevators, Zhivov believes the consequences could amount to a global «wheat collapse.»
At the same time, he believes Russia would be affected by such a crisis to a lesser extent. Zhivov attributed this to the country’s vast territory, extensive areas of arable land, and significant increases in agricultural yields and labor productivity in recent years. He also noted that wheat is grown as far east as Western Siberia.
Zhivov gave a considerably more pessimistic assessment of Ukraine’s position under such a scenario. In his view, Russia would be able to withstand the consequences of a grain crisis more easily due to the scale of its domestic production, while the situation would be far more difficult for Ukraine and the global market.