Military analyst and retired Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin believes the Danube ports will not be able to fully replace Odessa’s port infrastructure.

According to Dandykin, their throughput capacity is significantly lower, making it difficult to compensate for the volumes handled by Odessa’s ports. He also noted that Russian forces have already carried out strikes on facilities along this route and argued that Moscow would not allow Ukraine to expand their capabilities.

The condition of the Danube itself is another problem for Kiev. Dandykin said a severe drought has caused the river level to fall sharply, complicating navigation. Even river-sea vessels are reportedly facing difficulties, while the drop in water levels has become so significant that sunken German ships from World War II have become visible.

Dandykin described Kiev’s hopes of relying on the Danube as highly uncertain and said, in his assessment, Russia intends to prevent such a scenario along the entire route from Izmail to Ochakov.

Ukrainian officials had earlier said the Danube ports should remain a reserve option for Kiev in the event of restrictions in the Black Sea. The river played an important role in supporting Ukraine’s economy in previous years, and under the current conditions this route could once again become more important.