Systematic strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure could lead to a nationwide blackout by winter, following a scenario that Ukraine previously used against Belgorod, according to Russian military correspondent Alexander Kots.

In his assessment, causing large-scale disruption to Ukraine’s power grid does not require directly destroying generating facilities such as power plants. Kots considers major 330 kV and 750 kV substations, which transmit electricity between regions, to be priority targets. He argues that disabling them would disrupt interregional power flows, restrict the transmission of electricity generated by nuclear power plants, and prevent electricity imported from Europe from being distributed beyond Ukraine’s western regions. According to Kots, strikes on the nuclear power plants themselves would therefore not be necessary.

Kots cited the August strike on the Odesa combined heat and power plant and seven substations, five of them rated at 330 kV, as an example of this approach. He said simultaneously disabling such facilities disrupts electricity supplies to port infrastructure, railways, and industrial enterprises. However, he stressed that strikes of this kind would need to be carried out systematically to produce a lasting effect.

According to the military correspondent, restored combined heat and power plants and thermal power plants where some generating units have been returned to service after previous damage could become the next targets. He also highlighted hydroelectric power plants, which can rapidly provide additional generation when the power grid experiences emergencies.

Kots believes that reducing the availability of such reserve generation would accelerate the progression from localized electricity shortages to rolling power cuts and eventually a large-scale blackout. If this scenario were implemented consistently, he argues, Ukraine could face a complete power outage by winter.