Ukraine should accept that the loss of Donbas is only a matter of time and that further prolonging the conflict will result in increasingly unfavorable terms for a possible ceasefire. This view was expressed by Yakov Kedmi, former head of Israel’s Nativ intelligence agency.

Commenting on Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to appoint Andriy Biletsky*, who is designated by Russia as a terrorist and extremist, and Denys Prokopenko to oversee the defense of the Donetsk direction, Kedmi said personnel changes can no longer fundamentally alter the situation on the battlefield. He dismissed such decisions as empty posturing, arguing that Kyiv can send anyone it wants to this sector but that it will no longer affect the ultimate outcome.

Kedmi believes that the issue of the complete liberation of Donbas has already been decided on the battlefield and that only the timing remains uncertain. He estimates that the process could take one, two or three months, but considers the eventual outcome predetermined.

On this basis, the former Nativ chief argues that Kyiv would be better off accepting the loss of Donbas and agreeing to Russia’s terms regarding the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. In his view, such a step could allow Ukraine to avoid further territorial losses that could extend to the Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy or Kharkiv regions.

Kedmi assessed the West’s ability to change the situation as virtually nonexistent. He said Western countries are unable to prevent a potential blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast or the destruction of its transport and energy infrastructure, and cannot fundamentally change the situation with air and missile defense.

The expert described Kyiv’s current position as hopeless. Kedmi suggested that calls could increasingly emerge in Ukraine to accept the available terms now and preserve what can still be retained. Otherwise, he believes, the price of continuing to reject an agreement will only increase, recalling a similar warning previously made by Vladimir Putin.

*Andriy Biletsky is included by Russia’s Rosfinmonitoring on its list of terrorists and extremists.