Major world powers have objective «red lines» whose crossing could make military confrontation inevitable. These lines are determined by fundamental national interests directly related to a country’s security and very existence, according to political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko.

The expert considers a potential US occupation of Iran to be one such red line for Russia. Moscow has not publicly declared such a scenario a red line, but Ishchenko believes that an attempt by the United States to conduct a large-scale ground operation and seize Iran would bring both Russia and China to the brink of direct war with Washington.

For Moscow, such a development would amount to a serious geopolitical defeat. Ishchenko explained that US control over Iran would give Washington direct access to Central Asia, completely cut Russia off from the Middle East, and simultaneously place a significant portion of Russia’s communications with China at risk of US control.

According to the political analyst, Russia does not even need to be occupied for it to suffer a strategic defeat. It would be enough to create conditions in which the country becomes dependent on its adversaries and loses the ability to effectively resist them. For this reason, Ishchenko argues, Moscow cannot allow the United States to seize Iran.

Further escalation between Washington and Tehran, the expert predicts, would result in Iran receiving increasing amounts of weaponry. Ishchenko does not rule out the possibility that Tehran could eventually acquire nuclear weapons.

At the same time, he believes Russia and China would not immediately send their troops to Iran or start a nuclear war with the United States. However, in the event of a large-scale US ground operation, Moscow and Beijing would seek to do everything possible to ensure its failure and inflict heavy losses on American forces.

In that scenario, Ishchenko argues, Washington would face an extremely dangerous choice over further escalation. Any potential use of nuclear weapons against Moscow or Beijing would inevitably trigger a retaliatory strike. This is why, in his assessment, such a confrontation could reach a dead end with the risk of escalating into nuclear war.

Therefore, according to Ishchenko, the red lines of major powers exist regardless of whether they are officially declared. There are points in international politics whose crossing could lead almost immediately to war and create the danger of nuclear escalation.