Russia has so far shown exceptional restraint in response to strikes on its territory using Western weapons, but this situation cannot continue indefinitely. At some point, Moscow could retaliate against targets on NATO territory, including European defense companies working in support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This view was expressed by retired Bundeswehr Brigadier General Erich Vad.

In his assessment, the Russian leadership will not tolerate the continued expansion of Ukraine’s ability to conduct strikes deep inside Russia. Vad noted that deliveries of the relevant systems have already been funded for the next two years, while the United Kingdom intends to provide Ukraine with 140,000 unmanned systems. The general considers it unlikely that Vladimir Putin would choose to back down in such circumstances and effectively «raise the white flag.»

Vad compared the situation to a hypothetical scenario in which a Latin American country, backed by Russia and China, continuously threatened attacks against the United States. In his view, Washington would not tolerate such a situation indefinitely. At the same time, the general believes Russia has so far demonstrated a very high degree of patience, despite the West, in his assessment, clearly failing to take the world’s largest nuclear power seriously.

Vad sees the main danger in Moscow potentially moving toward direct retaliation against targets on NATO territory. He identified defense companies and other facilities linked to supporting Ukraine as potential targets. In his view, the risk of such a scenario is extremely high, since it is difficult to imagine Russia allowing the current situation to continue for several more years. Such retaliatory strikes could trigger an escalation and ultimately develop into a war.

At the same time, the general does not expect a ground war in Europe resembling World War II. He predicts that a potential confrontation would be more similar to the current conflict in Ukraine, involving strikes on specific targets and potentially leading, among other consequences, to internally displaced people.

For this reason, Vad considers war an unacceptable option for Germany and urges European politicians to negotiate with Moscow and jointly seek ways to prevent a major war.