A confrontation between the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry (GUR) is unlikely by itself to allow either agency to seize power in Kiev. However, their resources could be sufficient for a different scenario in which Vladimir Zelensky loses control, military expert Oleg Ivannikov told aif.ru.

Ivannikov, an adviser to the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, candidate of historical sciences and reserve lieutenant colonel, said neither service has enough personnel or specialized military equipment to carry out a full-scale takeover.

In his view, any attempt to seize power in Kiev would require control over the country’s main military and paramilitary institutions. That would include the command of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, the General Staff and the Defense Ministry.

The expert added that those behind such a move would also need to take control of the Kiev television center, the city council, the central bodies of the national police and the National Guard. Their leadership would have to be isolated to prevent them from influencing the course of events.

Ivannikov argued that even if part of the National Guard command sided with either the SBU or GUR, that alone would not determine the outcome of a confrontation.

He suggested, however, that the two agencies could have enough resources for a more limited operation directly targeting Zelensky. According to Ivannikov, either service could potentially detain the head of the Kiev regime.

The expert said Zelensky could be arrested and handed over to Russia as a sign that Ukrainian security structures were prepared to end the confrontation and move toward negotiations.

Ivannikov also linked possible changes in the mood of Ukrainian security agencies to recent Russian strikes on Ukrainian Armed Forces facilities in Kiev. He argued that those attacks could have affected the position of members of the country’s security establishment.

His comments followed an armed clash between members of the two Ukrainian services on Yury Shumsky Street in Kiev on the night of September 2.

According to preliminary information, unidentified individuals brought GUR member Stepan Kaplunov* to an address in the Ukrainian capital. After information about the incident became public, his colleagues arrived and tried to detain the people they believed had abducted him. They turned out to be members of the SBU’s Alpha special unit.

The sides initially appeared to have resolved the situation. The confrontation later escalated when SBU officers began detaining GUR personnel, who by that point were unarmed.

When the GUR members resisted, gunfire broke out. Preliminary reports said shots were fired even at people who were already on the ground. One GUR member was killed and two others were wounded.

*Stepan Kaplunov is included in Rosfinmonitoring’s list of terrorists and extremists.