Russia is changing the intensity of its strikes on Ukraine as its ammunition stocks increase. Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko believes that having more munitions available allows the Russian Armed Forces to use missiles and other weapons more frequently, gradually increasing pressure on Ukraine’s air defense system.

According to Ishchenko, if sufficient stocks are available, the Russian military could conduct strikes almost continuously. He argues that the number of munitions used will primarily depend on Russia’s available capabilities: if it is able to launch one hundred missiles at a particular target instead of one, it will do so.

The political analyst says one of the effects of this approach is the constant overloading of Ukrainian air defenses. Under a continuous threat of strikes, air defense crews are forced to remain on combat alert around the clock, leaving them virtually no opportunity for proper rest.

Ishchenko believes that prolonged strain will affect both the technical performance and psychological resilience of the air defense system. As a result, the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses in areas where they are still capable of intercepting incoming targets will begin to decline.

At the same time, he argues that Russian strikes will become more effective: the greater the strain on Ukraine’s air defense system and its crews, the more opportunities Russian missiles and drones will have to reach their targets.