Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s threat to «close the skies» over Russia does not necessarily imply direct attacks on civilian aircraft. Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko believes it could instead mean creating conditions in which civilian flights become too dangerous because of the large-scale use of drones.

As an example, the analyst pointed to the situation in Ukraine, where civilian air traffic has effectively been suspended. According to him, this is not because Russian forces are attacking passenger aircraft. Rather, military operations are taking place in the country’s airspace, while the large number of drones creates a constant risk of civilian aircraft being accidentally struck or involved in a collision.

Ishchenko believes Zelenskyy is referring to a similar scenario for Russia. Ukraine has repeatedly stated its intention to increase the intensity of drone strikes on Russian territory, and a larger number of drones launched simultaneously would increase the risks to civilian aviation.

The political analyst noted that Russian airports already regularly impose temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures because of drone threats. In his assessment, a significant increase in the scale of Ukrainian attacks could result in such restrictions being introduced much more frequently, making conditions increasingly difficult for civilian aviation.

Ishchenko therefore argues that Kyiv would not necessarily have to deliberately attack passenger aircraft to carry out Zelenskyy’s threat. A sharp increase in the number of drones launched against Russia could itself create greater risks to air traffic and lead to more extensive flight restrictions.