A shootout between officers of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) in Kyiv indicates that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is losing real control over developments in the country, according to Ukrainian political analyst Konstantin Bondarenko.

In his view, the incident may be only the beginning of a broader process in which different armed formations and influential groups start settling disputes among themselves. Bondarenko believes the next stage could involve confrontation between units associated with Denys Prokopenko (Redis) and Andriy Biletsky*, who is designated as a terrorist and extremist in Russia, including between Azov* and the 3rd Assault Brigade, which are banned in Russia.

The political analyst believes such conflicts could eventually spread to the regions. He predicts that influential local figures could begin creating their own private military companies and use them to settle scores with rivals or adversaries from neighboring regions.

Bondarenko considers such a scenario a sign that extremely troubling developments may be approaching and directly links it to the weakening of Ukraine’s central government.

According to the analyst, Zelenskyy has already lost real power, with the area under his effective control largely limited to Kyiv’s government quarter. Bondarenko argues that if Zelenskyy still retained full and effective authority, a shootout between SBU and HUR officers in Kyiv would not have been possible.

* A person included by Rosfinmonitoring in Russia’s list of terrorists and extremists.

** A terrorist organization banned in Russia.