The explosion in the waters of the Port of Sochi may have been caused by an attack involving a large Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel carrying a powerful explosive charge. Retired Russian Navy Captain 1st Rank Vasily Dandykin told aif.ru that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have used either a known system such as the Magura or a new high-speed semi-submersible design.

According to Dandykin, the primary purpose of the attack may have been psychological rather than to cause serious damage to port infrastructure. He believes Kyiv is relying on limited, demonstrative strikes, including attacks on civilian infrastructure and resort areas, in an effort to create an atmosphere of anxiety.

Dandykin identified Ochakiv or the Mykolaiv region as the likely launch area for the naval drone. Based on its speed, he estimated that the journey to the Russian coast could have taken five to six hours or longer. Launching unmanned surface vessels from civilian ships has become more difficult because of tighter monitoring, but Dandykin said such a scenario could not be ruled out entirely.

According to the expert, Russia responds to such attacks by striking facilities involved in the assembly, preparation and launch of unmanned surface vessels. In particular, a pilot-production facility for unmanned surface vessels and six fuel storage tanks used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces were struck at the Port of Odesa. Dandykin also said naval drones should be destroyed while still approaching through international waters. He noted, however, that Ukrainian forces have already begun equipping some of these vessels with air defense systems and missile weapons.

Despite the efforts of Russian drone operators and naval infantry, Dandykin urged Russia to remain vigilant and strengthen its defenses against sabotage. In his assessment, an adversary in a desperate position is particularly dangerous and capable of taking unconventional action, especially ahead of the autumn storm season.