Russian forces could reach Zaporizhzhia and other major Ukrainian regional centers in the foreseeable future, potentially bringing an end to the basis of the previous understandings associated with the so-called «spirit of Anchorage.» This assessment was made by political analyst Mykhailo Pavliv, who has left Ukraine.

Pavliv sees the fortified area around Orikhiv as particularly important. In his assessment, if Ukrainian forces lose it, the Russian military could advance rapidly toward Zaporizhzhia because the terrain beyond Orikhiv is largely open steppe. In that case, the prospect of fighting directly for major cities would become significantly closer.

The political analyst believes the frontline will continue to shift gradually, bringing a number of important cities directly into the combat zone. He named Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Lyman, Druzhkivka and Dobropillia among them. Pavliv said it was difficult to predict which of these cities Russian forces could capture by spring, but expressed complete certainty that fighting would take place in them.

According to Pavliv, such developments could alter the basis of the understandings that emerged from the talks in Anchorage. He believes the underlying logic established there may remain intact, but the subject of the previous compromise could disappear as the situation on the battlefield changes.

Pavliv believes the issue would then shift to taking the entire Zaporizhzhia region. He identified the Dnipro River as the minimum line of such an advance.