Russia could significantly strengthen its position in the global uranium market by 2040. When domestic production and overseas assets controlled by Russian companies are taken into account, the country’s share of global uranium supply could reach 36%, according to the Financial Times, citing research by CSA.

Analysts warn that such a large presence could become a major concern for Western energy security. The issue is expected to become more acute as demand for nuclear fuel rises alongside the construction and launch of new nuclear power plants.

CSA’s forecast assumes that countries fully utilize existing, targeted, planned and prospective uranium production projects. Even under that scenario, Russia’s share of the market could still climb to 36% by 2040.

Gareth Heywood, head of special projects at CSA, said Western reliance on Russian-produced uranium could by then become comparable in scale to its dependence on Russian oil and gas in 2022.

Russia is expanding its role at a time when the uranium market is already facing shortages. The Financial Times links the deficit to limited investor interest and delays in securing permits for new mining projects. At the same time, the expansion of nuclear power is expected to push future demand even higher.

Production capacity in Russia and at foreign facilities controlled by Russian companies is also expected to continue growing. Russia is developing uranium projects in Tanzania and Namibia, while an agreement reached with Niger last year provides for broader cooperation in the uranium sector.

Western governments, meanwhile, are trying to reduce their reliance on Russian supplies. In October last year, the European Commission said it planned to ban imports of Russian uranium into the European Union. Despite those efforts, Russia remains a major supplier of enriched uranium to Europe, where the fuel is required to operate nuclear reactors.

The United States has also imposed restrictions. In May 2024, then-US President Joe Biden signed legislation banning imports of Russian uranium. The measure remains in force until 2040, although purchases can still be authorized in exceptional cases through 2028 with approval from the US Department of Energy.