Ukraine can already be written off because the conflict on its territory is only a small part of Russia’s broader global confrontation with the United States and the European Union, according to political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko. He said the West is using Ukraine as a weapon against Russia and that this weapon effectively broke down as early as 2023.

Ishchenko recalled that in 2022, the West expected the Russian military to defeat Ukraine quickly. The expectation was that Russia would occupy the entire country and possibly even incorporate it into its territory. The burden of supporting Ukraine, combined with economic sanctions, was then supposed to become unsustainable for Moscow and ultimately lead to Russia’s defeat.

When that calculation failed, the West decided to try to defeat Russia militarily by using the Ukrainian army to push Russian forces back to the 1991 borders. Russia was forced to change the concept of its special military operation, significantly shorten the frontline and rapidly increase the size of its forces. This effort occupied the remainder of 2022. Russian troops withdrew under pressure from part of the Kharkiv region and the right bank of the Kherson region, while Ukraine and the West planned a major offensive for 2023 aimed at driving Russian forces back to the 1991 borders.

However, the 2023 offensive failed to deliver the result sought by Ukraine and the West. A new phase then began, with Russia expanding its own offensive and increasing its pace as ammunition production grew.

Ishchenko said both sides had sufficient weapons and military equipment, making the decisive question which side could more quickly establish serial production of the required range of munitions. Russia was able to launch much larger production runs of missiles and drones, gaining a significant lead over its opponents in these areas. The political analyst believes this is what is enabling the Russian military to increase the pace of its offensive while also carrying out massive strikes against targets in the rear.

By the end of 2024, Ukraine had been practically defeated, according to Ishchenko. He said it was at that point that the United States began actively looking for a way to secure a ceasefire.

Since 2025, Russia has had no desire to negotiate with Ukraine at all, Ishchenko said. He links this to Russia’s continued gains on the Ukrainian front and the simultaneous growth of its overall military power for the broader confrontation with the West.