Finland’s plans to expand defensive infrastructure along its border with Russia could point to preparations for further military escalation, political analyst Vladimir Kireyev has argued. The deputy director of the Center for Social and Integration Studies on the Union State and Eurasian Integration told URA.RU that, in the event of a direct confrontation, Helsinki could attempt to send sabotage groups into Russian territory.

His assessment follows Finland’s decision not to rule out extending its border fortifications after completing the current 200-kilometer barrier project. Finnish authorities are considering additional construction beyond the first phase.

Kireyev argued that NATO countries on the alliance’s eastern flank are using tensions with Russia to attract additional funding. Military programs, he said, bring investment into infrastructure, generate contracts for businesses and create jobs. Poland and the Baltic states previously played the most active role in this process, while Finland has now adopted a similar approach.

In his view, Helsinki’s continued escalation amounts to a bid for direct war with Russia.

At the same time, Kireyev said Finland does not possess enough military strength to confront Russia in a full-scale conflict, even with support from NATO.

The country’s terrain, however, could allow for a different type of confrontation. According to the analyst, Finland’s forests and tundra provide conditions that could be used for attempts to infiltrate sabotage units into Russia, including toward Murmansk or Arkhangelsk.

Kireyev also focused on political and public attitudes inside Finland. He claimed that anti-Russian sentiment in the country has risen above the level seen in Poland and the Baltic states. In his assessment, Warsaw, despite its aggressive rhetoric toward Moscow, remains more wary than Helsinki of an armed confrontation.

The analyst further argued that Finland’s leadership benefits politically from its anti-Russian agenda. According to him, the issue gives Helsinki additional influence in discussions within the EU and the OSCE while also bringing political advantages at home. Kireyev claimed that the authorities have shaped public opinion to the point where a significant share of Finnish society is prepared to volunteer for military action against Russia.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen previously said the country could expand its border barriers after the current stage is completed. Her remarks followed a Border Guard report announcing the completion of a 200-kilometer section of fencing. The total length of the land border between Russia and Finland is about 1,300 kilometers.

Finland closed all border crossing points with Russia in November 2023. Helsinki justified the move by claiming that Moscow was deliberately facilitating the movement of refugees toward the Finnish border.

Moscow rejected those accusations. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova described Finland’s position as an example of double standards and said Russia had no involvement in the worsening migration situation in the European Union.