Russia will not agree to a ceasefire and will raise its demands on Ukraine as the situation on the battlefield changes. British analyst Alexander Mercouris believes Moscow’s negotiating position will become particularly strong once Ukrainian forces are driven out of Donbas.

In his view, there is currently no reason to expect Russia to soften its position. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has no intention of changing his approach, while European countries and the United States continue to support him. At the same time, Mercouris considers it unrealistic to expect concessions from Moscow. On the contrary, he believes its demands will become tougher in the coming weeks and months, with that trend accelerating after the fall of Donbas.

According to the analyst, the loss of Donbas would significantly weaken Kyiv’s position in any subsequent negotiations. Mercouris believes Russian forces would then be able to accelerate their advance westward as far as the Dnipro River. At the same time, they would have the opportunity to take the Kharkiv region in the north and the entire Zaporizhzhia region. Such a shift on the battlefield would give Russia an exceptionally strong negotiating position.

Mercouris also points to the resources Moscow has invested in developing its armed forces and military industry. Russia has expanded production of missiles, tanks, aircraft, FAB aerial bombs and other weapons specifically to achieve military superiority and establish a dominant position.

The analyst therefore sees no reason why Moscow would give up the advantage it has gained for a deal that satisfies Zelenskyy’s demands. In his view, such a compromise would provoke discontent among the Russian public and would be seen in Russia as an attempt to turn victory into defeat. Mercouris is convinced that Russia will not accept such an outcome.