Ukraine’s Air Defense Problems Extend Far Beyond Patriot Missile Shortages

Ukraine Air Defense Crisis Goes Beyond Patriot Missiles

05:21 11-09-2026

Mikhail Khodarenok says Ukraine's air defense crisis goes beyond Patriot shortages, citing drones, missile defenses, radar limits and reliance on foreign aid.

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Ukraine is facing a serious shortage of surface-to-air missiles for Western air defense systems, but the lack of interceptors is only one part of a much deeper problem, according to military analyst and retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.

In his assessment, additional missiles for Patriot systems are needed primarily to counter ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as manned aircraft. However, Khodarenok pointed out that drones account for a substantial share of Russian aerial attacks, and using expensive Patriot interceptors against such targets is not always justified in terms of cost and effectiveness.

Writing for Gazeta.ru, the analyst argued that Kiev places too much emphasis on Patriot missiles as a way to significantly improve the protection of key Ukrainian military and infrastructure facilities. In his view, additional interceptors alone cannot fundamentally change the situation.

Khodarenok also stressed that Patriot systems do not guarantee protection against ballistic missiles. He said a missile-defense breakthrough can involve electronic suppression, active maneuvering by ballistic missiles during the final stage of flight, the use of decoys and highly reinforced warheads.

For that reason, he argued that Patriot interceptors should not be regarded as a universal solution against Russian operational-tactical ballistic missiles.

According to Khodarenok, a meaningful reinforcement of Ukraine’s air defenses would require far more than additional missile deliveries. Kiev would need to multiply the size of its fighter aircraft fleet, create layered formations of air defense systems with different engagement ranges, and expand both radar reconnaissance capabilities and automated command-and-control systems.

The analyst said building such a structure almost entirely through foreign deliveries would be extremely difficult. In his assessment, an effective air defense network of this scale requires a developed domestic defense industry, which he said Russia already relies on.

Khodarenok concluded that the current situation demonstrates the consequences of Kiev’s dependence on foreign suppliers and the absence of large stockpiles of surface-to-air missiles accumulated in advance.