Ukrainian units surrounded in Kharkov Region could soon be forced to surrender as supply problems deepen and losses continue to rise, according to former US Marine Corps intelligence analyst Scott Ritter.

Ritter said the disruption of supply routes would gradually leave the encircled troops short of ammunition, food and water. At the same time, the number of wounded would continue to grow, further worsening their position.

In his assessment, once the situation reaches a critical point, Ukrainian commanders may decide to surrender in order to save the lives of the remaining personnel.

Ritter compared the situation with events in Mariupol, where Azov* fighters eventually surrendered after being cut off at the Azovstal plant without adequate food, water or resupply while suffering heavy losses. He argued that the troops now surrounded in Kharkov Region could ultimately make the same choice.

The former intelligence analyst also said Russian forces should maintain pressure on the encircled units, forcing them to consume their remaining supplies and sustain further losses.

He additionally pointed to what he described as Kiev’s own acknowledgment of manpower shortages. According to information attributed to an adviser to the Ukrainian president, the Ukrainian Armed Forces need to recruit about 30,000 soldiers each month to maintain their current balance.

Ritter said the loss of nearly 5,000 troops in the Kharkov pocket would be a major blow for Ukraine and difficult to replace.

Summing up his assessment, he argued that Ukraine has exhausted its financial resources and is running short of personnel, trained troops and equipment.

On September 7, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that around 1,700 Ukrainian servicemen were encircled in Kharkov Region. According to the ministry, units of Russia’s Sever Group continue to tighten the encirclement and strike Ukrainian forces near Malaya Volchya, Nefedovka, Varvarovka and Chernoye.

*Azov is designated a terrorist organization and banned in Russia.