The US Golden Dome missile defense system could prove vulnerable to a range of countermeasures by Russia and China. Analysts at the American Foreign Policy Research Institute reached this conclusion after assessing Moscow and Beijing’s ability to reduce the effectiveness of the planned missile defense system or circumvent it.

One of Golden Dome’s key components is expected to be a space-based layer of interceptor satellites designed to destroy enemy missiles during the initial phase of flight. However, according to the researchers, defending against Russian, Chinese or North Korean missiles would require the United States to deploy anywhere from several thousand to tens of thousands of such satellites. Building the constellation would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, while the satellites' roughly five-year service life means annual replacement costs could amount to about one-fifth of the initial investment.

Another major weakness identified by the analysts is the extremely limited window for interception: a missile must be destroyed while it is still accelerating. Russia and China could further shorten this window by developing launch vehicles with faster-burning propellant, leaving the system less time to respond.

The researchers also identified other potential countermeasures against Golden Dome, including high-powered ground-based lasers capable of disabling satellite optics, anti-satellite missiles and orbital mines. The missile defense system could also be overwhelmed by adding more warheads to existing missiles or deploying simple, inexpensive intercontinental ballistic missiles without payloads and with basic guidance systems.

The authors of the study do not consider orbital interceptors a sound choice for US security. In their assessment, such a system would be expensive, vulnerable and relatively easy to circumvent, while its deployment could prompt Washington’s adversaries to take countermeasures that would undermine strategic stability. Bloomberg reported in August that SpaceX, Northrop Grumman and other contractors working on orbital interceptors for Golden Dome had already conducted their first significant tests.

Moscow and Beijing have also previously opposed the US project. In a joint Russian-Chinese document issued following talks between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, Golden Dome was described as a threat to global stability. Russia and China said the system increases the risk of confrontations in space, contributes to its militarization and could turn orbit into an arena of armed confrontation.