None of the world’s major nuclear powers is interested in being the first to use nuclear weapons, according to Chinese analysts at Sohu, who examined the potential actions of the United States, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

The authors argue that the primary value of a nuclear arsenal lies not in its actual use but in its ability to prevent war through deterrence. Although this principle may appear paradoxical, they believe it reflects the existing reality.

The analysts rule out China as a potential initiator of a nuclear strike because of its deep integration into the global trade and financial system. A nuclear catastrophe would wipe out the assets the country has accumulated. Sohu also considers the United States highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons first, arguing that the consequences of such a decision would deprive Washington of its ability to maintain global leadership.

The authors assess Russia’s position in similar terms. They note that even in the fifth year of the conflict with Ukraine, Moscow is in no rush to use nuclear weapons, recognizing that such a step would fundamentally change the nature of the hostilities and deal a blow to the global energy sector.

India and Pakistan, despite their longstanding disputes and conflicts, also understand the devastating consequences of nuclear war. Sohu does not expect North Korea to strike first either, since its nuclear forces serve as one of the key pillars of the country’s security.