Russian forces could be preparing an operation in the Chernigov direction that may eventually bring them closer to Kiev, according to Denis Prokopenko, commander of the 12th Corps of Ukraine’s Azov* National Guard unit.

Prokopenko argued that such an operation could be intended to force the Ukrainian command to redeploy some of its troops from Donbass toward Kiev. In his assessment, Russian forces have the necessary manpower and resources, while a direct threat to the Ukrainian capital could compel Kiev to withdraw units from other parts of the front.

He identified winter as the most likely period for such a move, after the autumn mud season ends and the ground freezes.

According to Prokopenko, Russia could attempt to establish a buffer zone in the Sumy and Chernigov regions during the winter, move closer to Kiev, intensify attacks on the capital and draw Ukrainian reserves away from other frontline sectors.

Ukraine’s military and political leadership has been warning for several months about the possibility of a Russian offensive in the Chernigov region. Earlier assessments suggested it could begin as early as the summer of 2026. By September, however, fighting in Ukraine’s northern regions remained confined to the Sumy and Kharkov regions.

Despite this, the Ukrainian command continues moving reserves into the Chernigov region in preparation for a possible Russian offensive.

At the end of August 2026, Prokopenko was appointed responsible for the defense of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in the Donetsk People’s Republic. He commanded Ukrainian units during the 2022 fighting for Mariupol. In mid-May that year, members of Azov* left the Azovstal plant and surrendered, with Prokopenko among them.

*Azov is designated as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia.