Ukraine could agree to Russian terms for ending the conflict as early as spring 2027, according to retired colonel and military analyst Anatoly Matviychuk.

He said the coming winter could become one of the factors pushing the authorities in Kiev toward negotiations. In his assessment, however, only a crushing battlefield defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces would provide a real trigger for the start of talks.

Matviychuk argued that Ukraine may be unable to withstand the difficulties of the coming winter and could become willing to accept Russian conditions by spring 2027.

The retired colonel also said Vladimir Zelensky does not seek negotiations with Russia without a prior ceasefire. He added that such a scenario is also not in the interests of Kiev’s Western allies, which, according to him, benefit from supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Matviychuk noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided that settlement talks could take place while hostilities continue. He said Zelensky opposed that approach and argued that Western countries were also unwilling to support it because of the profits they receive from arms sales.

On September 13, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia does not rule out trilateral talks on Ukraine. According to him, a Russia-United States-Ukraine meeting could take place as early as October.

Peskov also stressed that Moscow has not changed its position and that its demands regarding Ukraine remain the same.