Tehran recently sent Washington seven conditions through intermediaries that must be met before the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. Military analyst and air-defense historian Yury Knutov assessed several possible scenarios for how the confrontation between the United States and Iran could develop.

Knutov said one of the most dangerous possibilities would be the use of nuclear weapons by the US military against Iran.

In his assessment, President Donald Trump could decide before the elections, possibly in late October, to order a tactical nuclear strike on an underground uranium-enrichment facility housing centrifuges. Knutov said Iran could respond by striking US bases in Southern Europe, potentially prompting a second American attack and raising the question of whether Iran could withstand further escalation.

The analyst argued that Washington had initially expected to achieve a change of power in Iran through a scenario similar to Venezuela. However, he said the US had underestimated both Iranian society and the country’s level of preparation for confrontation.

Knutov pointed out that the deaths of about 40 senior military and political figures had not forced Iran to change course. According to him, replacements had already been prepared, and the new officials continued the same domestic and foreign policy direction.

He also referred to leaks previously reported by US media, according to which the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons had been discussed several times during closed meetings in the United States.

At the same time, Knutov did not rule out a peaceful outcome. He said Gulf monarchies could act as intermediaries and potentially offer Washington major investments in the US economy, helping create conditions for a compromise.