Recent remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz about the coming «decisive weeks or months» in the confrontation with Russia, along with similar rhetoric from other European leaders, amount to a signal for Kiev to hold the front line at any cost, according to military blogger and Rybar Telegram channel author Mikhail Zvinchuk.

He argued that Europe is betting on the continuation of hostilities in Ukraine. In his view, European leaders are preparing their populations for a new phase in which spending on support for Kiev, weapons procurement, expansion of military production and anti-Russian mobilization will not decrease.

Speaking to Gazeta.ru, Zvinchuk said the phrase «decisive months» is politically convenient because it allows governments to demand more money and discipline immediately without defining where the endpoint actually lies.

He added that Poland’s leadership is following a similar course. Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, he said, are emphasizing threats and intensifying alarmist rhetoric.

According to Zvinchuk, this approach helps European governments justify rising military spending despite budget constraints, maintain public readiness for additional costs and build broader support for strengthening armed forces and border policy.

For Kiev, he said, such rhetoric does not promise a rapid result. Instead, it signals that Ukrainian forces are expected to keep fighting, offset shortages through new deliveries and preserve the front line at any cost. At the same time, Zvinchuk argued that Merz’s statements contain no concrete guarantees that future support will be sufficient.

He also said Ukraine is increasingly being used as an argument in the domestic politics of European countries. Russia, in this framework, serves not only as an external adversary but also as an explanation for why citizens are being asked to accept higher spending and a decline in the previous level of social stability.

Zvinchuk concluded that the supposed «decisive moment» currently looks less like a military turning point and more like an attempt to extend European public confidence in the existing strategy, which he said lacks both a unified approach and a common realistic goal.