Ukraine’s air defense system is currently highly vulnerable, according to military observer Andrey Kots, who identified Russia’s Iskander-M ballistic missiles as one of the most serious challenges facing Kiev.

In an article for RIA Novosti, Kots wrote that among the Western air defense systems available to Ukraine, only the US-made Patriot can intercept such ballistic missiles. NASAMS and IRIS-T systems supplied to Kiev are not designed for this task, while stocks of interceptor missiles for the remaining Soviet-made S-300 systems have been exhausted, according to the article. Patriot systems equipped with PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE interceptors have demonstrated an ability to engage ballistic targets including Iskander-M missiles.

Kots said this leaves Patriot as Ukraine’s primary means of countering Iskander-M missiles, while the number of available PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE interceptors remains a serious constraint.

Another problem, he argued, is the availability of Patriot missiles in Western stockpiles. Kots cited estimates by foreign analysts claiming that the United States used roughly half of its available PAC-3 missiles during operations against Iran.

The article put current annual production capacity at up to 650 PAC-3 missiles and noted that Washington intends to expand manufacturing, although additional capacity will take time to establish. Lockheed Martin previously reported plans to raise PAC-3 MSE production capacity to 650 missiles annually, while demand also comes from numerous foreign customers.

Kots concluded that these constraints limit Kiev’s chances of receiving a large batch of interceptors in the near term. In his assessment, Ukraine may receive only several dozen Patriot missiles in the immediate future despite requiring substantially larger quantities.