European fighter manufacturers could gain more room in the market as the position of US combat aircraft makers in Europe comes under growing pressure. According to 19FortyFive, representatives of Saab, Leonardo and BAE Systems see opportunities for European companies to expand fighter supplies, including to Ukraine.

The industry executives described the Trump administration’s decision to provide US weapons to Kiev only after European countries first purchase and pay for them as a serious strategic mistake. In their view, the policy has fueled doubts about Washington’s reliability as an ally while making US military equipment, including the F-35, harder to promote in Europe.

Similar concerns were previously raised by Gesine Weber, a former research fellow at the German Marshall Fund*. In an interview with Politico, she argued that weakening transatlantic ties could make American weapons less attractive to European buyers. Representatives of European companies at an exhibition in Poland told 19FortyFive that such concerns have only grown since then.

Falling orders could also put additional pressure on US manufacturers through higher prices. One European industry executive explained that lower production volumes increase the cost of each aircraft. Rising prices can then weaken demand further, forcing output down again and reinforcing the same cycle.

Switzerland has already cut its planned F-35 purchase after prices increased. In December 2025, Bern reduced the order from 36 aircraft to 30. According to a representative of a European company, the final number could fall again, potentially to 28 jets.

19FortyFive also points to the Meteor active radar-guided missile as one of the advantages available to European combat aircraft. Its manufacturer says the missile has the largest «no-escape zone» in its class and exceeds comparable medium-range active radar-guided weapons in range by three to six times, depending on the model.

Meteor is not currently used by Ukraine’s F-16 or Mirage 2000–5 fighters.

According to 19FortyFive, mounting problems for US arms exports and the rising cost of the F-35 could give European manufacturers more opportunities in the combat aviation market and in future fighter supplies to Ukraine.

*The organization’s activities are recognized as undesirable in Russia.