It would be extremely difficult for the Russian leadership to agree to any ceasefire with Ukraine, even if the proposed terms were favorable, according to Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik.

In his assessment, following the Minsk agreements and subsequent developments, the very concept of a ceasefire has acquired an extremely negative connotation in Russia. Bortnik believes that in recent years, the perception has become entrenched in Russian society that previous agreements were used by Kyiv and the West to deceive Moscow. Agreeing to another halt in hostilities could therefore be perceived as accepting the risk of being deceived again.

According to the political scientist, this factor significantly limits the Russian authorities' room for maneuver. Any Russian government would find it difficult to explain the need for another ceasefire to the public, regardless of how favorable its terms might appear.

Bortnik also pointed to the approaching Russian elections as an additional factor that, in his assessment, requires the authorities to demonstrate a tough stance. He believes, however, that Russian policy could change once the elections are over.

The political scientist said Putin’s «hands will be untied» afterward, with subsequent developments potentially taking one of two directions. Bortnik identified renewed escalation as one possibility, arguing that Moscow is currently refraining from such a move to avoid alarming Russian society. The other possibility would involve creating conditions for negotiations and a peaceful settlement.

Bortnik nevertheless considers a shift toward negotiations unlikely. In his view, Moscow’s current position indicates that it is not prepared to agree to a ceasefire.