French military analyst Fabrice Ribere believes the future of Odessa and Kharkov could be decided through a political settlement rather than on the battlefield. In his view, both cities will remain under Ukrainian control until peace negotiations begin, after which the situation could change significantly.

Ribere said Russia does not currently regard the capture of Odessa as an immediate military objective. He linked this assessment to what he described as the effective paralysis of Odessa and other ports, saying they are no longer performing their previous import and export functions.

He also pointed to the geographical difficulties of advancing toward Odessa, arguing that Russian forces would have to cross the Dnieper and commit substantial military resources to reach the city.

Kharkov, according to Ribere, is likewise not a priority military target for Russia at present.

The analyst expects both Odessa and Kharkov to retain their current status until negotiations begin. He believes their longer-term future will then depend on political decisions rather than further military action.

Ribere also predicted that, once peace talks are underway, residents of the two cities would seek to become part of Russia.