Small Russian infantry groups could reach Zaporozhye as early as this winter, according to Dmitry Filatov, commander of Ukraine’s 1st Separate Assault Regiment, known by the call sign Perun. He said the situation for Ukrainian forces in this sector continues to deteriorate.

Filatov expects the Stepnogorsk area and the mouth of the Dnieper to become a key axis for Russian operations toward Zaporozhye during the winter.

In his assessment, Russian forces could rely on infiltration tactics, using small infantry groups rather than a large-scale push into the city. He also pointed to dense urban development along the coast as a factor that could make such movements easier.

Filatov said he believes individual Russian groups could approach and enter Zaporozhye during the winter. He stressed that he was not referring to a full-scale entry of major troop formations, but to isolated infantry units.

The Ukrainian commander warned that even a limited Russian foothold inside the city could have serious consequences for Kiev, including its effect on Ukraine’s partners and on morale within the Russian military.

Filatov had previously raised concerns about the development of Russian satellite communications. He said Russia could achieve stable coverage across all of Ukraine during 2027, which, in his view, would allow Russian forces to significantly increase the use of FPV drones and loitering munitions.