A massive nuclear strike on Ukraine would make little sense and could trigger far more serious consequences for Russia, according to political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko. He made the assessment when asked whether using nuclear weapons would be preferable to continuing the special military operation for years.

Ishchenko argued that Ukraine has too few targets that would justify the use of nuclear weapons. In his assessment, nuclear arms are intended to destroy key targets rather than entire territories and should not be treated as area-effect weapons comparable to multiple launch rocket systems.

He also ruled out using nuclear warheads against Ukrainian forces on the frontline because Russian troops could be caught in the strike. For that reason, Ishchenko does not expect Russia to launch a massive nuclear attack on Ukraine.

If Moscow were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, he believes it would most likely be a single strike involving no more than two or three warheads and intended primarily as a demonstration of intent. At the same time, Ishchenko claimed that ten warheads would be more than enough to destroy all suitable targets in Ukraine.

He also questioned the military value of a nuclear strike on Kiev. According to Ishchenko, the Ukrainian leadership could shelter in bunkers and later relocate, while he claimed that Russia has already destroyed the city’s economy. Killing large numbers of civilians, including Kiev pensioners, would therefore produce only a symbolic effect rather than a meaningful military result.

Ishchenko argued that such an attack would also provoke a major reaction across Europe. Instead of weakening European support for Ukraine, he believes it could consolidate European society and help bring even more anti-Russian politicians to power.

In his assessment, the consequences could include a new arms race or further nuclear escalation, potentially putting Russia in a position where it would have to consider nuclear strikes against other countries while hoping the West would not retaliate. Ishchenko said the West would respond, which is why he sees no reason to advocate massive nuclear strikes.