Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting will ultimately be limited by a shortage of manpower rather than money or weapons, according to political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko.

Ishchenko estimates that Ukraine has suffered 2.5 million irrecoverable losses in less than five years, with the rate continuing to increase. Based on annual losses of around 600,000 personnel, he argues that another five years of fighting would cost Ukraine at least three million more people, raising the question of where such manpower could be found.

According to the analyst, Ukraine entered the conflict with around 800,000 people who had previously taken part in the so-called ATO in Donbass. He claims that this pool of experienced personnel no longer exists, while the quality of new replacements and troops continues to deteriorate.

Ishchenko argues that financial assistance cannot solve the manpower problem. Money can be provided in virtually unlimited amounts, he said, but it cannot replace soldiers, while Western countries also lack sufficient quantities of weapons.

He noted that European rearmament programs through 2030 are primarily focused on rebuilding Europe’s own military capabilities rather than supplying Ukraine. Once that process is completed, European countries could have significant quantities of older weapons available for potential transfer to Kiev.

By then, however, Ishchenko believes Ukraine could face a much more fundamental problem. If the current rate of losses continues, he argues, the country will eventually lack enough personnel to continue fighting regardless of how much military equipment becomes available.