Possible NATO exercises near Kaliningrad could be aimed primarily at demonstrating continued US involvement in European security rather than sending a message to Russia, according to political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko.

Ishchenko noted that NATO has long conducted military exercises without involving every member of the alliance. Participation varies depending on the region, with Sweden, for example, not sending its ships to the Black Sea and Romania not deploying vessels to the North Sea.

If NATO decides to hold aggressive exercises near Kaliningrad, Ishchenko believes the United States would most likely refuse to participate. Britain, however, could assemble a group of interested countries and conduct such drills under the NATO umbrella.

The analyst considers this scenario possible, particularly because NATO has already held exercises in the area. In his assessment, however, the decisive issue for European countries is not the drills themselves but whether the United States takes part.

Ishchenko argued that European governments want to demonstrate to their own populations that Washington remains firmly alongside them and that the alliance maintains a unified position. From this perspective, he believes exercises near Kaliningrad would be intended more for a European domestic audience than for Russia.

He also linked this objective to recent European initiatives that he says are designed to bring the United States back into the European theater of military operations. According to Ishchenko, American involvement is crucial for Europe because only the United States can guarantee a nuclear umbrella for European countries.

Even the perception that such a US nuclear guarantee exists, he argued, gives European governments additional opportunities to conduct military propaganda within their own countries.