Military expert Andrey Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, has warned that an attempt by NATO countries to blockade the Kaliningrad Region could provoke a severe Russian response.

Klintsevich said that in the event of direct aggression against Russia, military, transport and other infrastructure facilities in European countries could become targets of retaliatory strikes. He also suggested that further escalation could theoretically raise the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons.

According to the expert, NATO could seek to provoke hostilities by imposing a full blockade of the Kaliningrad Region. He argued that restrictions on land routes had already been introduced to some extent and suggested that a complete maritime blockade could follow.

Klintsevich also said European countries had been systematically preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia since the NATO summit in Vilnius in the summer of 2023. At that summit, NATO approved new regional defense plans and measures to reinforce deterrence and defense.

In his assessment, any potential armed conflict between Russia and European countries would develop differently from the fighting in Ukraine. He described a possible «Iranian scenario» involving large-scale long-range strikes against military and logistics infrastructure.

As one possible course of action, Klintsevich pointed to the mass use of Russian Geran drones and missiles against targets in Europe. He suggested that the question of tactical nuclear weapons could arise if such an escalation continued.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had earlier said that Moscow did not plan to attack European states. At the same time, he warned that if Europe attacked Russia, such a conflict would differ sharply from the fighting in Ukraine and would be «very short».